基于LCA的安徽省低碳农业发展评价与影响因素分析

Evaluation on Development of Low-carbon Agriculture and Its Influence Factors Based on LCA in Anhui

以生命周期评价(LCA)为基础,选取农业能耗状况(化肥、农药、农膜施用强度)、农业生产低碳绩效(碳生产力、财政支农强度、农业碳排放效率)等评价指标,运用趋势分析法、对比分析法等分析安徽省低碳农业发展现状,并对低碳农业中化肥、农药、农膜使用量等影响因素进行回归分析。结果表明,2000—2014年安徽省农业生产中化肥、农药、农膜等碳排放源的排放强度均呈现逐年下降趋势,碳生产力逐年良性发展,农业碳排放效率逐年提高,农业碳排放总体呈正平衡状态。各因素对农业总产值的影响从大到小依次为化肥施用量、农药施用量、农膜施用量、农用柴油使用量,其各自用量每增加1%,农业总产值就相应地分别增加1.36%、1.14%、-0.70%、0.49%。

Based on life cycle assessment（ LCA）,the agricultural energy situation（ application intensity of fertilizers,pesticides,plastic sheet）,the performance of the agricultural production of low-carbon（ carbon productivity,the strength of financial support for agriculture,agricultural carbon emission efficiency）were selected as evaluation indexes,the development of Anhui low-carbon agriculture was studied by trend analysis and comparative analysis,and regression analysis of chemical fertilizers,pesticides,plastic sheet application amount was done. The results showed that the carbon emission intensity of fertilizers,pesticides,plastic sheet and other sources in Anhui agricultural production showed a declining trend year after year,and carbon productivity showed the benign development year after year,and the efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions was improved year after year,and agricultural carbon emissions were positivly balanced during 2000—2014. The influence order of various factors on the value of agricultural output was chemical fertilizer application amount pesticides application amount plastic sheet application amount diesel oil application amount,each in amount per 1% increase brought agricultural output corresponding increase of 1. 36 %,1. 14%,- 0. 70%,0. 49%.