中国—东盟自贸区建设中中国挤占东盟FDI问题研究——基于日本2001-2012年FDI基础上的考察

Did China Crowd Out ASEAN's FDI When Establishing the CAFTA?

2010年中国—东盟自贸区建成前后,东盟国家纷纷担心中国会挤占东盟来自发达国家的对亚洲的外来直接投资(FDI)。文章以日本在2001-2012年间对亚洲的FDI为例,考察了中国和东盟在其中的份额和变化趋势。日本的案例表明,在中国—东盟自贸区建设过程中,只有2002年大约有16%日本投资到亚洲的FDI从东盟转移到中国、印度及台湾地区。其中中国和台湾地区在2001年底和2002年初的入世是发生FDI转移的直接原因。除此以外,东盟在2002年度集中精力发展并扩大东盟内部成员国的FDI交流,从而部分忽视了对东盟域外FDI的吸引,这是2002年度东盟FDI转移的内部原因。除2002年外,中国和东盟的FDI体现出越来越高的相互依存性,为东亚经济一体化奠定了基础。

ASEAN members have been concerned that China would crowd out ASEAN＇s FDI inflows from the developed countries since the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area（CAFTA）.The article explores China and ASEAN＇s share in Japan＇s outward FDI in Asia and their trend from 2001 to 2009.The Japanese case fully illustrates that approximately 16% of Japanese FDI in Asia diverted from ASEAN to China,India and Taiwan in 2002.China＇s entry into the WTO in late 2001 and Taiwan＇s entry in early 2002 were the direct causes.In addition,ASEAN focused more on improving intra-ASEAN FDI exchanges and ignored extra-ASEAN FDI flows,which was the internal cause for FDI diversion of ASEAN in 2002.With the exception of 2002,both China and ASEAN＇s FDI were characteristic of increasing interdependence,which laid a basis for regional economic integration in East Asia.