地区安全治理的未来:走向亚洲协调

The Future of Regional Security Governance:Towards an Asian Concert of Powers

作者首次提出了"亚洲协调"的概念,讨论了亚洲协调对未来亚洲及太平洋地区安全治理的必要性和长远性。尽管最早的主要国家之间协调(concert of powers)的理论与实践是19世纪的、欧洲的,但是,关于主要国家之间协调(不仅是大国协调)的一般理论却同样可以运用在解决21世纪的亚洲(以及太平洋)的严峻安全挑战和困境上。这些挑战和困境在未来可能会进一步演化为严重的大国之间的对抗甚至冲突。更重要的是,亚洲协调将注定会阻止战争、实现长期和平及维持本地区的经济活力。也就是说,如果亚洲协调明智地和有效地建立并运作起来,到2079年,亚洲以及太平洋将拥有一百年的和平,如同欧洲在1815-1914年拥有的百年和平。从1979年到现在,亚洲地区已经享受了接近四十年的和平。在过去二十多年建立起来的地区或者跨地区的论坛、会议、组织和制度等,反映了治理亚洲地区的权力转移的企图和努力;尽管这些安排相互重叠、尚未彼此兼容,甚至相互竞争,但我们完全可以把它们当做未来亚洲协调的基础。虽然目前的地区安全治理仍然由美国及其同盟体系占据主导地位,但美国也不得不重视复杂的安全地区主义。有不少人建议美国应该以亚洲协调作为未来解决与中国关系的方案。中国已经为建立在经济发展基础上的亚洲和平做出重大贡献。中国已与美国建立"新型大国关系"回应美国的"转向亚洲"。中国在亚洲协调中的地位是中心的和关键的。

This paper argues that the theory and practice of the 19 th century European concert of powers can also be applied to the resolution of severe security challenges and dilemmas in the 21 st century Asia and the Pacific,which would otherwise evolve into strategic rivalries and confrontations and even conflicts among regional powers in the future.The Asian concert of powers is a fundamental solution to the regional conflicts.More importantly,it is bound to bring about a lasting peace by preventing future wars and maintaining the economic dynamism of the region.That is,if an Asian concert can be established and operated pragmatically and effectively,Asia and the Pacific would have the opportunity to enjoy a 100-year peace by 2079 like the European centenary peace from 1815-1914.Since 1979,Asia has enjoyed a nearly four-decade peace.The existing regional/trans-regional forums/conferences,organizations,and institutions have developed in the past two decades,reflecting the attempts and efforts to manage the power shifts in the region.Although overlapping,not well accommodated and even competitive against each other,they can be seen as a foundation to Asian concert of powers——the future regional security governance and order.Although the US-led alliance system still dominates the regional security governance,the US has to accept the complex regional security multilateralism.The concert of powers is recommended as a solution to the future US relations with China,which has been proactive in the regional forum system as a full participant in almost all regional security processes.China has contributed decisively to the economic development-led peace in Asia,and is seeking a 'new relation' with the US as a response to the latter's 'pivot to Asia'.China deserves a central and crucial position in the Asian concert of powers.