当前东北亚安全困局及其“病灶”探析

Northeast Asia Security Dilemma Today and its Causes

2016年以来,因朝鲜第四次核试验及美韩宣布在韩国部署"萨德"反导系统,东北亚固有的安全困境更加突出,并引起相关国家及国际社会的进一步密切关注。就当前而论,东北亚安全困境具体表现为朝鲜在进行第四次核试验后,其核武器开发继续"跃马扬鞭";美韩以朝核威胁为由加强驻韩美军实力,包括不顾中俄强烈反对,决意在韩部署"萨德"反导系统;日本在进一步倚美的同时,趁势拉拢韩国,强化对华敌视政策,致使中日关系频现紧张;美国一方面以应对朝核威胁为由而加强其在东北亚的军事力量和"前沿部署",另一方面又极力拉紧美日韩同盟,其在东北亚遏制中俄的态势更趋明朗。东北亚安全局势持续紧张的深层次原因:一是由于东北亚国家间存在复杂的领土领海及历史纠葛,二是朝鲜半岛南北长期对立,三是日本在历史认知及其与东北亚邻国领土领海分歧等问题上长期采取顽固立场,四是美国搞"亚太再平衡",利用东北亚国家间的固有矛盾从中渔利,企图通过对华进行"局部遏制"而长期维持其在东北亚的同盟体系及霸权。未来东北亚安全困境是继续加深、激化还是逐步淡化,取决于上述深层次原因的演变方向。

The twin incidents in 2016,the fourth North Korean nuclear test and the US-South Korean declaration to deploy the THAAD missile-defense system in South Korea,highlight Northeast Asia Security Dilemma and draw close attention from relevant states and the international community as well.The dilemma can be deeply felt in the following four aspects:(1) North Korea steps up its efforts in nuclear weapon development after its fourth nuclear test.(2) On the excuse of North Korea nuclear test,South Korea and the United States reinforce the US military presence in South Korea and decide to deploy the THAAD missile-defense system in South Korea despite the strong opposition from China and Russia.(3) With growing reliance on the United States,Japan takes this opportunity to consolidate its relations with South Korea and strengthen its hostile policy towards China,resulting in constant tension in Sino-Japanese relations.(4) To tackle the so-called North Korea nuclear threat,the United States has upgraded its military presence and frontier deployment in Northeast Asia,and strengthened the US-Japan-South Korea alliance,further exposing the US intention to contain China and Russia in Northeast Asia.The following four deeply rooted causes contribute to the highlighted tension in the security landscape in Northeast Asia:(1) territorial disputes in land and sea entangled with historical disputes among countries in Northeast Asia;(2) long-time North-South division on the Korean Peninsula;(3) Japan's persistence of its stance towards its invasion of and territorial disputes with its Northeast Asian neighbors in history;and(4) the US Rebalancing Strategy to cash in on disputes among Northeast Asian countries and the US intention to maintain its alliance and hegemony in Northeast Asia through partial containment of China.Whether Northeast Asia security dilemma is to deteriorate or improve hinges upon the evolution direction of these deep-rooted causes.