经济新常态下中国CPI与PPI的“正负背离”现象分析——基于部门间价格传导机制差异视角

Phenomenon of “Positive and Negative Deviation”of CPI and PPI in China under the Economic New Normal: Based on the Difference of Price Transmission Mechanism

中国经济进入新常态以来,国内价格水平变动出现了新的特征:CPI与PPI的走势出现长时间的正负背离,两者间的缺口已接近历史最大值,但CPI与PPI的波峰、波谷在时间点上仍然大致相对应。研究发现:在中国农产品供需紧平衡和服务需求增加的背景下,劳动力成本上涨对食品和服务价格的传导是CPI上涨的重要原因;工业产能过剩背景下,国际大宗商品价格下挫对工业品生产资料价格的传导是PPI下降的重要原因。劳动力成本与国际大宗商品价格的"一涨一跌"使得CPI与PPI变动"正负背离",而国际大宗商品价格下跌是CPI与PPI之间缺口扩大接近于历史最大值的主要原因。CPI与PPI间的价格传导机制减弱但仍然存在,是两者之间存在缺口但波峰波谷大致对应的主要原因。为了防止全面通缩的出现,需要利用结构化的财政政策与货币政策增加国内投资,通过落实"一带一路"战略和扩大出口来增加国外对国内工业产能的需求。

Since entering the New Economic Normal, China＇s domestic prices appear new features that the trend of CPI and PPI has been positive and negative separation for a long time, the gap between them is close to historical maximum, but wave crests and troughs of CPI and PPI remains correspond roughly to each other in time. The study finds that, in the context of tight balance of supply and demand of agricultural product and increasing demand for services, rising labor costs for food and service prices is an important reason for the rise of CPI. In the background of industrial overcapacity, the transmission of falling interna- tional commodity prices to domestic industrial goods is an important reason for the decline of PPI. The fea- ture of ＂one up and one down＂ of labor costs and international commodity prices makes changes of CPI and PPI ＂positive and negative deviation＂, and the decline of international commodity prices is the main reason for the gap between CPI and PPI, which is close to the maximum level of history. Price transmission mech- anism between CPI and PPI becomes attenuated but still exists, which is the main reason why gap exists and peaks and troughs correspond roughly to each other.