基于VAR-GARCH-BEKK模型的卫生总费用溢出效应分析

Analysis on the Spillover Effect of Total Health Expenditure Based on the VAR-GARCH-BEKK Model

目的:研究卫生总费用变动与经济增长之间的动态影响关系。方法:使用VAR-GARCH-BEKK模型对卫生总费用溢出效应进行分析。结果:从均值角度来看,卫生事业投入的增加可以有效促进经济增长,但是经济的增长并没有伴随公共卫生支出的太多增长;从波动角度来看,卫生事业支出波动与经济增长波动间具有双向溢出效应。结论:在我国经济发展进入新常态的背景下,各级政府应更加合理、有效地投资国民健康,促进经济繁荣。

Objective： To study the dynamic relationship between total health expenditure and economic growth. Methods： Taking VAR-GARCH-BEKK model to estimate the spillover effect of total health care spending. Results： The increase of total health spend- ing did not efficiently promote the economic growth, and not vice-versa. The total health expenditure volatility had significant positive effect on economic growth and vice versa. Conclusion： Under the background of introducing ＂new normal context＂ into China eco- nomic development, government of all levels must rationally and effectively invest on national health and promote economic growth.