基于CRITIC法与可变模糊集的煤与瓦斯突出预测

Prediction of Coal and Gas Outburst Based on CRITIC Method and Variable Sets

针对煤与瓦斯突出评价的模糊不确定性问题,提出基于CRITIC法的可变模糊集预测方法,以此提高煤层突出危险程度预测的准确率。模型选取突出矿井防突工作中常用的6项判定指标作为煤与瓦斯突出评价指标,并确定了煤层突出危险程度分级标准;采用CRITIC法计算评价指标权重,引入可变模糊集理论合理确定评价指标对各级别的相对隶属度,建立煤层突出危险程度可变模糊集预测模型,依据危险等级特征值判断评价对象的隶属类别。实例应用表明,该方法较好地考虑了模型参数的可变性,准确地预测了煤层突出危险程度,评判结果更为可信,为煤岩动力灾害的准确预测提供理论指导。

The method using CRITIC method and variable fuzzy sets is proposed to solve the fuzzy uncertainty problems and improve the prediction accuracy of coal and gas outburst. Six indexes used usually in the prediction jobs are chosen to evaluate coal and gas outburst in the model, and the classification standards of coal seams outburst are confirmed. Objective weights are gained based on CRITIC method. The relative member-ship degree between each index and standard interval of each level index is reasonably identified by variable sets theory. Variable sets model is established to identify sample grade by stable grade feature value. The experiments results showed that this method is applied to evaluate coal and gas outburst dangerous level accurately based on the change of model parameters, and the assessment result can be more reliable. And it is possible for prediction method of CRITIC method and variable fuzzy sets to evaluate coal and gas outburst, and it provides a new theory for predicting coal and gas outburst.