中俄国际道路运输发展研究

Research on the development of international road transportation between China and Russia

目前我国对俄主要公路口岸分布在内蒙古自治区和黑龙江省,包括满洲里公路口岸、绥芬河公路口岸、东宁公路口岸、密山公路口岸和虎林公路口岸。本文分析了中俄进出口贸易发展趋势,总结了对俄五大公路口岸的基本情况,在此基础上分析了中俄国际道路货物运输总需求,并采用组合预测法进行定量预测,定性分析国际旅客运输需求将呈稳中上升的态势,并对各口岸的能力适应进行了分析,最后提出了若干促进国际道路运输发展的建议。

At present,main road ports of China to Russia distribute in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Heilongjiang Province,including Manzhouli Road Port,Suifenhe Road Port,Dongning Road Port,Mishan Road Port and Hulin Road Port. Development trend of import and export trade between China and Russia is analyzed in this paper,and the top five road ports of China to Russia are introduced. Then international road freight transport demand are analyzed and forecasted with the combined forecast method,and international passenger transport demand are described qualitatively.After that the demand and the ability of every road port are compared. Finally some suggestions to promote the development of international road transport are put forward.