开放条件下物价水平的形成机制研究——基于52个国家面板数据的经验证据

A Research on the Mechanism of the Price Level under the Open Conditions:The Empirical Evidence from 52 Countries

本文采集52个国家1994—2012年的数据,利用System GMM方法研究发现,开放经济条件下,制造品进口、关税削减、外商直接投资的增加均显著抑制了国内物价水平的攀升,表明开放后外部冲击在短期内可能会加速物价水平的波动,但在长期中一国物价水平与其开放程度呈负相关关系,开放程度愈高的国家,其通货膨胀率可能愈低。名义汇率的上扬对物价水平的影响为正,其生成的价格传递强度与一国通胀环境有关,较高的通货膨胀对应着较高的价格传递效应。与此同时,通货膨胀惯性、货币供给、产出增长率等影响物价水平的传统因素仍然有效。因此,对于通货膨胀的治理,既要立足于国内紧缩性的货币政策,也要站在全球化的视角,从关税减让、进口商品结构、国际货币体系协调等方面多管齐下,积极构建反通货膨胀的宏观审慎政策框架。

Based on data from 52 countries from 1994 to 2012, this paper has these findings by the System GMM method： such variables as manufactured goods import, tariff rate and foreign direct investment significantly suppressed the domestic price level. Therefore, the external shocks may accelerate the fluctuation of price level in the short term, but there is a negative correlation between the price level and the openness degree in the long term. Namely, the higher of openness degree, the lower the inflation rate is. Nominal exchange rate has a positive effect on the price level, the intensity of this price transmission is related to a country＇s inflation environment and higher inflation corresponds to higher price transmis- sion effect. At the same time, the traditional factors such as the governance of inflation, money supply and output growth are still valid. Therefore, for the governance of inflation, we should not only have the domestic tightening monetary policy, but also actively build a macro prudential policy framework from the perspective of globalization by diversified approaches such as tariff reduction, import commodity composition and international monetary system coordination and so on.