国家储备政策与非对称价格传导——基于对中国生猪价格调控政策的分析

National Buffer Stocks and Asymmetric Price Transmission: Evidences from Hog Price Control Policy in China

本文基于静态预期模型分析了国家储备政策导致的非线性价格传导。在比价信号的收储与放储政策干预下,价格传导关系会在目标比价点产生阈值效应,在上下阈值外部,传导速度更快。当收储与放储政策不一致时,会出现上下阈值以外的非对称价格传导。以中国猪肉储备政策为例,本文基于双维格点搜索法估计了政策实施前后猪粮价格的双阈值误差修正模型。结果显示,储备肉政策使猪粮价格传导产生了显著的阈值效应。生猪价格的短期回调机制在价格上行区间强于下行区间,表明政府应进一步加强对收储工作的重视。

Policy of national buffer stocks can result in nonlinear price transmission. In this paper we show that with government buffer stock purchases and sales at fixes support and release price ratios, price adjusts faster outside the thresholds. Asymmetric price transmis- sion can be induced when stock purchasing and selling policies are different. Taking Chinese hog reserve policy as example, three-regime thresholds vector error correction model was estimated based on the method of two-dimensional grid searching. Threshold effects were confirmed on the price transmission from maize to hog. Results indicate that the short-run hog price adjustment toward equilibrium is more robust in upper regime than lower regime, which implies more importance should be attached to hog stock purchasing.