水下生产系统脐带缆故障树分析

Fault Tree Analysis of the Umbilical of Subsea Production System

基于故障树分析(FTA)方法,以南海某气田水下生产系统脐带缆为研究目标,对其进行可靠性定性、定量分析。建立了目标脐带缆的故障树模型,通过对脐带缆故障树模型的最小割集定性分析,确定脐带缆的关键单元为电缆单元、护套及铠装;通过对脐带缆故障树模型的定量分析,判断出关键单元中电缆单元的重要度最大,识别出脐带缆的薄弱环节为电缆单元。从脐带缆设计、制造和运行监测的角度提出针对电缆单元的改进措施,可为水下生产系统脐带缆的设计和安全运行提供参考和借鉴。

Fault tree analysis （FTA） is applied to analyze the reliability of the subsea umbilical of a gas field in South China Sea both qualitatively and quantitively. The fault tree model of the subsea umbilical is built. The key components of the subsea umbilical are cable, sheath and armour according to the qualitative analysis result and the weakest link, also the most important component, is the cable based on the quantitive analysis result. Based on the analysis results, improvement measures focusing on the cable are put forward in terms of design, manufacturing and operation of the umbilical to reduce the risk of failure and improve the reliability of the umbilical, which is beneficial to the design and safe operation of the subsea umbilical.