尾流自导鱼雷平行齐射发现概率解析计算模型

Analytic Method for Computing Finding Probability of Salvo of Two Wake Homing Torpedoes

为了准确快速地评估尾流自导鱼雷平行齐射的作战效能(发现概率),从鱼雷、目标的相对运动入手,将目标位置及运动随机误差转移到目标航向上,建立了两种计算尾流自导鱼雷平行齐射发现概率的解析模型。最后以统计模型为标准验证解析模型的正确性。仿真结果显示,90%态势下,解析模型与统计模型的结果差的绝对值在1%之内,另外10%态势,也在1%-3%。从而验证了所建解析模型的正确性。

In order to evaluate the combat effectiveness or finding probability of salvo of two wake homing torpedoes accurately and quickly,the target position and motion random errors were transferred to the target course according to the relative motion of torpedo and target. On this basis,two analytic models were established that compute the finding probability of salvo of two wake homing torpedoes. Finally the correctness of the analytic model was verified through comparing with statistical model. Simulation results show that the absolute value of the difference between analytic model and statistical model is smaller than0. 01 for ninety percent of the situational,and smaller than 0. 03 for all the situational. So the analytic model is correct.