基于环境CGE模型的水污染税政策绩效评估

Research on the performance evaluation of water pollution tax policy:based on environmental CGE model

在当前污染形势严峻而环境政策体系尚不完善的背景下,进行环境政策创新势在必行。以水污染税为例,并设置了3种不同税率的政策情景,通过构建环境CGE模型对水污染税的开征进行仿真分析,并从污染减排效果和宏观经济冲击2个方面对中国环境政策创新的绩效进行了评估。研究结果表明,在污染减排方面,水污染税的开征对大多数部门化学需氧量的排放起到了显著的抑制作用,且随着税率的不断提高,污染减排的效果亦逐渐增强,但存在边际效应递减的现象;在宏观经济增长方面,水污染税导致了GDP及大部分部门产出的下降,但下降幅度非常小,表明中国企业已经有能力应对更严厉的环境政策所导致的成本上涨,对经济系统的冲击属于可承受的范围。

China is experiencing serious pollution now,however,with ineffective environmental policy system. Under such background,it is urgent to innovate China’s environmental policies. This paper takes the water pollution tax as an example and establishes an environmental CGE model to evaluate the performance of this policy with two perspectives,that is,the effects on pollution abatement and on economic growth. The results show that the water pollution tax will significantly reduce the COD emissions,but with diminishing marginal effect when the tax rate raises. Moreover,the water pollution tax leads to a decline in GDP and most of industrial sectors. However,the drop is very small,which indicates that China’s firms are able to bear the cost increase caused by more stringent environmental policies and that it is time to innovate environmental policy systems for China.