天然气下游经济改革的双重路径依赖

Double Path-dependence of Downstream Natural Gas Economic Reform

天然气改革不断推进,并在国家层面出台了相关的政策。但是各省份政策是否跟进,并获得预期的效果?以福建省为例,分析了天然气下游经济改革的进展和路径,发现受市场不确定性和规模报酬递增等影响,福建省天然气的下游经济变迁存在技术和制度双重路径依赖。制度路径依赖深层的原因在于政府与燃气经营商的利益一致,双重角色定位和利益述求成为政府推动强制性制度变迁的利益障碍,技术路径依赖源于燃气管网横向的成本劣可加性和纵向的木桶短板效应,并且存在制度变迁和技术选择交互影响,增加了经济变迁的复杂性和难度。由此造成各省份制度差异和基础设施难以衔接,无法达到全国性的资源配置优化。

with the continuous promotion of natural gas reform,relevant national policies are promulgated. But have different provinces issued relevant policies and obtained expected effects? The paper, taking Fujian Province as an example, analyzes the progress of and path for downstream natural gas economic reform and finds it out that affected by market uncertainty and increasing returns to scale, the downstream natural gas economic change in Fujian Province is dependent on technology and system. The reason for dependence on system lies in that the government and gas dealer have same benefits and the definition of dual role and interest appeal become a barrier to the mandatory institutional change by government. The reason for dependence on technology lies in horizontal subadditivity and longitudinal cask effect of gas pipe network. Mutual effects between institutional change and technology selection increase the complexity and difficulty of economic transition. As a result, different provinces have different systems and their infrastructures can hardly be linked, and the optimization of national resources allocation can hardly be realized.