城市天然气管网供应可靠性模型分析

Model Analysis for Gas Supply Reliability of Urban Natural Gas Pipeline Network

当城市天然气日需求量大于天然气管网供给城市门站的日供气量时,用户用气得不到满足。针对这一问题,基于概率统计方法,得出城市天然气日需求量概率分布函数,假定管网供给门站的日供气量服从某种分布,建立管网供给门站的日供应—城市天然气日需求的干涉模型,推导出供应可靠度的表达式,并考虑到在计算可靠度时出现的管网供给天然气量和城市天然气日需求量的概率密度函数不可积的情况,引入蒙特卡洛模拟法得出供应可靠度。结果表明由蒙特卡洛模拟法得出的结果与可靠度计算公式所得结果近似相等,且模拟的次数越多模拟结果越精确。

if the daily gas demands of the city are greater than the daily supply of gas from natural gas pipeline network to city gas gate stations, the gas consumption demands of users are not satisfied. Aiming at this problem, the paper, based on probabilistic method, obtains a probability distribution function of urban daily gas demands. Assuming the daily supply of gas from natural gas pipeline network to city gas gate stations obeys a certain distribution, an interference model of daily supply of gas from natural gas pipeline network to city gas gate stations daily demands of city gas is established and an expression of gas supply reliability is inferred.Considering the gas volume supplied by pipeline network when calculating gas supply reliability and the non- integrable probability density function of urban daily gas demands, Monte Carlo simulation model is introduced to calculate gas supply reliability. Results show that the results obtained with Monte Carlo simulation model are approximately equal to the results obtained with reliability computational formula and more simulations are conducted, more accurate the simulation results will be.