云南省财政支出对私人投资的影响——基于VECM模型的实证研究

The impaction of Yunnan province fiscal expenditure on private investment——based on VECM model

宏观经济方面,财政政策在引导经济方面有着不可低估的作用,尤其在促进经济健康发展方面。本文主要关注云南省,采用时间数据(1981-2014年)建立VECM(向量误差修正模型)衡量云南省地方财政支出和私人投资之间的长期关系。通过VECM模型的协整方程回归,我们发现:长期来说,云南省地方财政支出对私人投资有正向作用,这与国家财政支出对私人投资的影响是一致的,地方生产总值与私人投资之间的关系为正向关系,而协整方程的回归结果表明,居民消费支出从长期看对私人投资的正向拉动作用较大,但是云南省地方税收却挤出了私人投资。

Financial policy has a substantial impact on leading economy, especially in promoting the economy to healthy development. This paper focus on Yunnan province, using time data（1981-2014）to build a VECM model to measure the relationship between Yunnan local fiscal expenditure and private investment. After observing the regression of VECM model cointegration equation, we found that the local fiscal expenditure has positive effect on private investment in the long run, which is consisted with state fiscal expenditure. The local GDP has positive relationship with the private investment. However, the result shows that the people’s expenditure has substantial positive impact on private investment and the Yunnan local government taxes crowd-out private investment.