摘要
在区域比较优势与人口迁移二者互动效应的理论分析基础上,本文利用台湾跨度30年的数据建立向量误差修正模型估算其长期关系,研究发现二者存在非单向性关系;人口迁移对区域经济的影响呈滞后效应,反映在产业结构层面存在极大的相异性:相较产业结构合理化而言,其对产业结构高级化的作用更显著;短期内人口迁移无法显现其正面作用,长期而言,人口迁移强化并形成有竞争力的综合比较优势,必然带动经济结构的调整与升级。经济政策的制定应考虑到人口迁移所带来的"结构效应",并加以合理引导。
Based on the theoretical analysis of the relationship between the population migration and the regional comparative advantages, the paper analyzes the long-term relationship between them by drawing on the time series data of Taiwan between 1981 to 2011 and using Vector Error Correction model. The result shows that dynamic relationship between them is not unidirectional.There is positive effect of migration on the industrial structure, and the effect of migration on the optimization of industrial structure is more significant. Population migration has the lag effect to the regional economy, and there is great difference in the level of industrial structure. In the short term, migration can not show its positive effection. However, there is gradually increasing positive effects of the population migration in the long run. Migration is bound to promoting the adjustment and upgrade of the economic structure.Economic policy should take into account the structural effect of migration and make a reasonable guide.
出处
《台湾研究》
2016年第4期78-87,共10页
Taiwan Studies
关键词
区域比较优势
人口迁移
向量误差修正模型
Regional Comparative Advantages
Population Migration
Vector Error Correction Model
