劳动力外出就业与农村犯罪——基于中国村级面板数据的实证分析

Off-Farm Employment and Rural Crime:Evidence from Village Panel of Rural China

农村劳动力大规模外出就业深刻地改变了中国农村的社会结构,也引致了一系列社会后果,农村犯罪率的变化就是一个重要表现。农村劳动力外出就业对农村犯罪同时产生"转移效应"和"创造效应",共同推动农村犯罪率的变化。本文基于全国225个村2000年、2005年和2010年的三期面板数据,借助极端天气对农业和非农收入结构造成的外生冲击,实证考察了劳动力外出就业对农村犯罪率的影响。研究发现,农村劳动力外出就业形成的犯罪"创造效应"大于"转移效应",导致农村犯罪率上升。农村劳动力外出就业每增加1%,将使农村刑事犯罪率和违反治安管理条例案件发生率分别增加0.28%和0.62%,但对农村民事纠纷发生率没有显著影响。本文的研究结论呼吁政府重视农村留守人员的安全问题。

This paper uses a unique village-level pavel dataset on rural social public security to estimate the link between off-farm employment and rural crime in China. We find that, firstly, with one percent increase in off-farm employment, rural crimes and violating the security management and punishment regulations are projected to increase by 0. 28 percent and 0. 62 percent, respectively; secondly, there are no significant correlation between off-farm employment and rural civil disputes. Our results may have important public policy implications for the design of effective rural security policies.