中国农产品出口增长的主导因素:集约边际还是扩展边际

The Main Influencing Factors of China's Agricultural Product Export Growth:Intensive Margin or Extensive Margin?

利用1995—2013年中国农产品出口的HS92六位编码数据,采用H-K测度方法测度中国农产品出口增长的二元边际,在此基础上,构建面板数据模型对农产品出口增长的二元边际影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,中国农产品的出口增长由集约边际和扩展边际共同拉动,但集约边际起主要的贡献作用,其贡献率在2003年以后到达70%以上。经济规模对集约边际有显著的正影响,农业附加值占GDP的比重、贸易成本、经济危机对集约边际有显著的负影响。农业附加值占GDP的比重、与中国签订区域经济一体化协定对扩展边际有显著的正影响,贸易成本、人均GDP年增长率对扩展边际有显著的负影响。经济危机对集约边际有显著的负影响,扩展边际具有"稳定器"作用,这为解释中国农产品出口增长脆弱性问题提供了新的视角并具有丰富政策含义。

In this article, the six HS92 encoded data of China^s agricultural product export from 1995 through 2013 have been used and the H-K measurement method has been applied to measure the dual margins of China＇s agricultural product export growth. Based on this, panel data model was constructed to do empirical analysis on the factors influencing the dual margins. The results show that the growth of China＇s agricultural product export is driven by both the intensive margin and the extensive margin, but intensive margin plays a leading role, the contribution rate of it was 70% after 2003. Economy scale has a positive effect on the intensive margin while the proportion of agricultural added value in GDP, trade cost and economic shocks have negative effects on that. The proportion of agricultural added value in GDP and singing regional economic integration agreements with China bring positive effects to the extensive margin, while trade cost and the annual growth rate of GDP per capital bring negative effects to that. Economic shocks have a significant negative influence on intensive margin but extensive margin plays the role of stabilizer, which provides a new perspective in explaining the weakness of the growth of China＇s agricultural product export and have rich policy implications.