基于灰色理论的风电功率预测研究

Wind Power Prediction Based on Gray Theory

对风电场的发电功率进行较为精确的预测可以有效地降低因风电的波动性对并网电网的影响。GM(1,1)模型与灰色Verhulst模型是普遍应用的两种经典预测模型。分别采取这两种模型可以实现风电功率的超短期预测。针对某风电场某日全天的风电功率数据,使用Matlab进行仿真验证了此方法的可行性,对风电功率的预测具有一定的指导意义。最后通过对预测数据的比较与残差分析得出结论,灰色Verhulst模型比GM(1,1)模型预测精度更高,更适合应用在风电功率预测的研究中。

Accurate prediction of the generated power in wind plant can effectively reduce the impact of wind power fluctuations. GM （1, 1 ） model and gray Verhulst model are two classical models which are widdy used. These two models are used to realize the ultra - short term prediction of wind power. According to the wind power data for one day of a certain wind power plant, the feasibility of the proposed method is simulated and verified in Matlab. Finally through analysis it proves that the accuracy of Verhu｜st model prediction is higher and more suitable for ap- plication in wind speed forecasting analysis.