近35年六安地区农业界限温度变化特征分析

Analysis of Changing Characteristics of Agricultural Boundary Temperature in Lu'an City during Recent 35 Years

利用安徽省六安地区6个县市气象观测站1981~2015年的逐日平均气温资料,采用线性趋势分析、M-K非参数突变分析等方法对稳定通过10、20℃初终日期、持续日数和积温的变化特征进行了分析。结果表明,近35年来六安地区稳定通过10和20℃的初日均呈提前趋势,初始日期在全市范围内提前幅度分别为2.2和3.1 d/10 a,气候突变点均出现在1997年;终止日期呈推迟趋势,推迟幅度分别为1.4和0.9 d/10 a,不存在显著的气候突变点。稳定通过10和20℃的持续日数均呈递增趋势,平均增幅分别为3.6和4.0 d/10 a,气候突变点分别出现在1997、1994年。稳定通过10和20℃的积温均呈递增趋势,平均增幅分别为126.7和116.0（℃·d）/10 a,气候突变点均出现在1994年。

Based on the daily average temperature data from meteorological stations in 6 counties in Lu＇an City during 1981- 2015,changing characteristics of the beginning and ending dates,continuous days,and accumulated temperature of ≥10 and ≥20 ℃ were analyzed by using linear climate tendency analysis and M- K nonparametric mutation analysis. The results showed that in Lu＇an City during recent 35 years,the beginning dates of ≥10 and ≥20 ℃ were 2. 2 and 3. 1 d /10 a earlier respectively,and their abrupt changes occurred in 1997; the ending dates were 1. 4 and 0. 9 d /10 a later respectively,but the ending dates had no significant abrupt change. The continuous days of ≥10 and≥20 ℃ increased significantly by 3. 6 and 4. 0 d/10 a respectively,and the abrupt changes happened around 1997 and 1994 respectively.The accumulated temperature of ≥10 and ≥20 ℃ also increased significantly by 126. 7 and 116. 0 ℃ /10 a respectively,and the abrupt changes appeared around 1994.