电子信息产业集群创新的系统动力学分析

The Innovation of Electronic Information Industry Cluster Based on System Dynamic

在分析电子信息产业集群特征基础上,建立了电子信息产业集群创新的因果关系图和系统动力学模型,并用Vensim PLE对所构建模型进行仿真。采用中国电子信息产业统计年鉴发布的数据对模型有效性进行了验证,结果表明系统动力学模型能够有效模拟电子信息产业集群规模和创新的发展。对模型的调控变量进行灵敏度分析,提出了扩大集群规模和加强集群创新的政策建议。

Based on analysis of the characteristics of the electronic information industry cluster, this paper set up a causal graph and a system dynamic model, which was realized by Vensim PLE. And then, it test the validation of the model using data from China Statistics Yearbook on Electronic Information Industry. The simulation results showed that the system dynamical model was valid for simulating the scale and innovation development of electronic information industry cluster. Finally, the sensitivity analyses of regulation variable were tested. And it provided some measures to increase the industry cluster scale and industry cluster innovation, so as to give decision support for governmental administration.