经济集聚与城市环境污染排放的非线性效应研究

The Non-linear Effects of Economic Agglomeration on Pollution Emission in City

以经济集聚的负外部性为切入点,基于2005~2012年276个城市的数据,运用面板平滑转换模型对经济集聚与城市环境污染排放之间的关系进行了研究。结果表明：经济集聚与城市环境污染排放之间存在着平滑转换机制效应,两者因转换机制的不同而呈现非线性关系。特别是当城市经济结构中第二产业比重较低时,经济集聚显著降低了城市环境污染排放,减排效应明显;而当城市经济结构中第二产业比重超过一定值时,经济集聚对城市环境污染排放的减排效应受到抑制而减弱。

From the prospective of the negative externality of economic agglomeration based on the data of Chinese 276 cities from 2005 to 2012, this paper investigates the relationship between economic agglomeration and environmental pollution emis- sion in city by applying panel smoothing transition regression （PSTR） model. Results indicate that there is a smooth transition characteristic feature between economic agglomeration and environmental pollution emission in city, which exhibit non-linear relationship due to the different transition mechanism. Particularly, when the proportion of secondary industry in the urban in- dustrial structure is relatively low, the economic agglomeration can remarkably reduce the environmental pollution emission in city, showing obvious emission reduction. However, the reduction of environmental pollution emission in city resulting from the economic agglomeration will be suppressed and then decreases as the proportion exceeds a certain value.