互联网发展水平对产业结构变迁的动态效应与区域差异影响研究——基于省际面板数据模型的实证分析

Research on Dynamic Effects of Development of Internet on Transforming Industrial Structures and on Regional Differences——An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data Model

选取2008年~2013年我国31个省级区域的面板数据为样本,在用主成分分析法对互联网发展水平进行测度的基础上,实证分析了我国互联网发展水平对产业结构变迁的影响。结果显示：互联网的迅速发展对产业结构合理化、高级化有显著的正向影响;互联网发展导致的产业结构变迁效应存在区域差异,其对中部区域推动作用最大,对西部区域推动作用最小;其产业结构合理化、高级化具有刚性,对下一期均会产生显著影响;总体而言,互联网发展对产业结构高级化的影响要大于合理化。

This paper,based on the principal component analysis method to re-measure the level of development of the Internet and by selecting the panel data of 31 provincial grade regions in 2008- 2013 as samples,makes an empirical analysis of the influence of China＇s Internet development on transforming the industrial structures. The result shows： the rapid development of the Internet has a significant positive impact on the rationalization and upgrade of the industrial structures and there exists the regional differences caused by the transforms among the regions with greater impact on the central regions and the least on the western regions; the rationalization and upgrade of the industrial structure have rigidity which will prominently affect the next stage. On the whole,the development of the Internet has greater influence on upgrading the industrial structure than on the rationalization.