计及多重不确定因素的输电网随机潮流计算

Stochastic load flow calculation considering multiple uncertainties in transmission grid

针对确定性潮流计算不能准确描述输电网随机特性的缺陷,本文考虑多重不确定因素影响的输电网随机潮流计算,研究多重随机故障对输电网电压分布和潮流分布的影响。首先对发电机故障、负荷波动以及断线故障进行组合分析;其次,应用半不变量和Gram-Charlier级数展开的随机潮流分析方法,求取多重不确定因素影响下输电网各节点电压和各支路潮流的概率分布;最终,得到不同工况下节点电压越限概率以及支路潮流过载概率,进而评价多重不确定因素对输电网电压和支路功率的影响程度。研究结果对输电网规划和运行具有重要的参考价值。

In view of the defects of deterministic flow calculation method does not accurately describe the nature of transmission network random,this paper researched of the multiple random failures on the influence of voltage and load flow distribution in transmission network. First of all,the method of combinatorial analysis is used to prove several properties of the units of generator failure,load fluctuations and disconnection fault. Secondly,of the semi-invariant and Gram-Charlier series are applied to expand the stochastic load flow analysis method,each node voltages and the trend of the probability distribution of each branch are obtained under the influence of multiple uncertainties. Finally,it was obtained that under different conditions,the more limited probability of node voltages and the overload probability of branch flows,and made evaluation of the influence degree that the multiple uncertainties on the transmission network voltage and branch power. The research results provided an important valuable reference for the planning and operation of the transmission network.