基于碳收支核算的河南省碳排放峰值预测

Prediction of Carbon Emission Peak Value of He'nan Province Based on Carbon Budget Estimation

[目的]对河南省碳排放及碳足迹峰值进行了预测,旨在了解河南省未来碳减排潜力,寻求低碳发展的对策。[方法]基于省域层面,以河南省为例,对历年的碳收支和碳足迹状况进行了核算和评估,并通过STIRPAT模型和情景分析方法对河南省碳排放峰值进行预测。[结果](1)河南省碳排放总量从2000年的6.83×107 t上升到2012年的1.77×108 t,涨幅为159.2%,其中碳排放的行业差异性大,工业占主导地位,不同途径碳排放的增幅具有明显差异,生态系统的碳汇能力呈明显下降趋势。(2)河南省2000—2012年能源消费的碳足迹呈逐年增加态势,从2000年的1.71×107 hm2上升到2012年的4.42×107 hm2。碳足迹的扩大造成了1.68×108 hm2的生态赤字。(3)在基准和低碳情景下,河南省碳排放峰值有望出现在2040和2035年,在考虑区域碳吸收补偿的前提下,碳排放峰值将分别提前到2035和2025年。[结论]河南省碳收支呈现明显的不匹配状态,但在考虑碳补偿的基础上,河南省具有较大的碳减排潜力空间。

[Objects] Carbon emission and carbon footprint of He＇nan Province were predicted in order to understand the potential of carbon emission reduction in the future and to find low-carbon development strategies. [Methods] Based on the provincial level, taking He＇nan Province as an example, this paper analyzed the carbon budget and carbon footprint of He＇nan Province, and predicted the carbon emission peak value by STIRPAT model and scenario analysis approach. [Results] （1） The total amount of carbon emissions in He＇nan Province increased from 6.83107 t in 2000 to 1.77108 t in 2012 with the increasing rate of 159.2%. The carbon emissions were quite different among different industries, in which, the manufacturing industries contributed the most of total carbon emission. The increasing rate of different types of carbon emissions were obviously different from each other. The carbon sink capacity of terrestrial ecosystems of He＇nan Province decreased since 2000. （2） The carbon footprint of energy consumption of He＇nan Province increased from 1.71107 hm2 in 2000 to 4.42107 hm2 in 2012. The expansion of carbon footprint caused the ecological deficit of 1.68108 hm2. （3） Carbon emissions will reach to its peak value in 2040 or 2035 under benchmark or low-carbon scenario, respectively. If the regional carbon compensation was considered, peak values of carbon emissions under benchmark and low-carbon scenario will arrive in advance, in 2035 and 2025, respectively. [Conclusions] The carbon sinks of He＇nan Province do not match carbon emissions. If carbon compensation is applied, there is huge room for carbon emission reduction in the future.