基于耕地压力指数的山东省粮食生产动态分析与预测

Development of Grain Production and Its Prediction in Shandong Province

[目的] 对山东省1994-2014年的粮食生产进行动态分析，并对2015-2025年的粮食安全状况进行预测，为该省制定合理的粮食生产规划和农业经济政策提供科学依据。[方法] 从耕地压力角度出发，采用最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型，通过对文献资料进行搜集、整理与统计，并运用Logistic人口预测模型和灰色GM（1，1）模型开展研究。[结果]（1）山东省1994-2014年中的大多数年份耕地压力指数大于1，处于粮食不安全状态；（2）1994-2014年耕地压力指数呈现出缓慢上升趋势，且其变化具有明显的周期性，每个波动周期大约为4~5a；（3）未来10a粮食产量、年末人口总数呈增加的态势，而耕地面积、人均耕地面积、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数均呈现出降低趋势，且大多数年份的耕地压力指数值小于1。[结论] 通过大力发展粮食经济，未来10a山东省粮食生产与供给都将处于安全状态。

[Objective] The grain production status in Shandong Province during 1994-2014 and the food security during 2015-2025 were studied to provide scientific basis for making reasonable production planning and agricultural economic policy. [Methods] Models of the cultivated land pressure index based on minimum per capita arable land area, logistic population prediction model and grey model〔GM（1,1）〕 were used to carry out the research. [Results] （1） The cultivated land pressure index was greater than 1 in many years during 1994-2014 in Shandong Province, implying that a state of food insecurity existed. （2） Cultivated land pressure index in 1994-2014 showed a slow periodical upward trend with a 4~5 a cycle. （3） In the next 10 years, grain output and total population will present a growth trend; while indices of arable land, arable land per capita, the minimum per capita cultivated land area and cultivated land pressure index are predicted having a downward trend. And the cultivated land pressure index value will be less than 1 in most years. [Conclusion] Through expanding food economy, grain production and food supply will be in a safe state in the next 10 a in Shandong Province.