基于追踪调查数据的中国老年人口健康状况与期望寿命研究

The Distribution Characteristics of the Health State and the Life Expectancy of the Elderly in China

利用中国城乡老年人口状况追踪调查数据,以老年人日常活动能力作为评价指标,将老年人口分为健康、不健康和不能自理三种健康状态,并利用多态生命表技术,计算了我国老年人口的剩余期望寿命及其在不同健康状态下的期望寿命。主要结论包括:(1)在不同的健康状态下,中国女性老年人口的剩余期望寿命明显长于相同年龄男性老年人口;(2)男性老年人口的健康期望寿命占剩余期望寿命的比例高于女性老年人口,女性老年人口的非健康期望寿命占剩余期望寿命的比例高于男性老年人口;(3)在低龄老年人口中,剩余期望寿命的变化主要由健康期望寿命决定,在高龄老年人口中,非健康期望寿命在剩余期望寿命中的影响逐渐增大并与健康期望寿命在数值上趋近一致;(4)不能自理期望寿命没有明显的性别和年龄差异。

Using the tracking data from the national aging population survey performed in 2006 and 2010, we analyze the life expectancy in different health states of Chinese elderly population by multistate life table on the bases of state transition probability. We divide the elderly into three states, namely healthy, unhealthy and disability, and use the elderly＇s abilities of doing daily activities as the evaluating indicators.Our results conclude that： （1） no matter in which health state, the age-specific life expectancies of female elderly is significantly longer than that of the male in the same age. （2） The proportion of active life expectancy in remaining life expectancy of male elderly is higher in all age groups than female elderly, the proportion of inactive life expectancy in remaining life expectancy of female elderly is higher in all age groups than that of the male. （3） In young elderly population, the decreases of remaining life expectancy are mainly because of the decreases of active life expectancy; In the population of oldest old, the proportion of inactive life expectancy in remaining life expectancy is becoming higher with aging, while active life expectancy is getting closer with inactive life expectancy numerically. （4） The disability life expec tancies are not observed with differences in gender or age.