碳减排技术进步与扩散的影响因素研究

Theoretical and Statistical Analysis on Impact Factors of Carbon Emission Reduction Technology Diffusion

为解决当前严峻的环境问题,碳减排政策不仅要关注技术创新,还要重视技术的扩散。本文通过构建包含最终产品生产部门、中间产品生产部门和R&D部门三部门经济增长模型,对碳减排技术进步与扩散的机理进行理论分析发现,技术吸收能力、技术存量、碳排放税和碳减排技术补贴是影响碳减排技术扩散的主要因素。本文以1999—2014年中国30个省份的面板数据为样本,采用系统GMM估计了纵横向技术差距对碳减排技术进步与扩散以及碳减排效率的影响,实证结果表明,技术差距能够显著提高碳减排技术的改进与扩散,不同类型的碳减排技术的进步与扩散,均有利于提高碳减排效率,但效果不同,同时存在显著的区域差异。因此,在制定碳减排技术扩散政策时,要充分考虑地区差异,政府可以通过推进环境税费改革、完善生态补偿机制、健全碳排放交易市场体系等措施促进碳减排技术的扩散。

In order to solve the current serious environmental problems, the carbon-emission-reducing policies should attach importance both to the technology, innovation and its diffusion. This paper makes a theoretical analysis of the mechanism of the carbon-emission-reducing technological improvement and diffusion by constructing a three- sector economic growth model including the final products production sector, the intermediate products production sector and the R＆D sector. The study shows that such factors as technology absorptive capacity, technology stocks, carbon emission tax and technology subsidy for carbon emission reduction are the four main factors that influence the technology diffusion of the carbon emission reduction. To be specific, firstly, the higher the technology stocks are, the more it will benefit the technological improvement. Secondly, the stronger the technology absorptive capacity of a local manufacturer is, the faster the technological improvement and diffusion will be. Thirdly, the higher the elas- tic coefficient of the intermediate products＇ price and technology to the final products is, the higher the technologi- cal improvement and diffusion will be. And lastly, the carbon emission reduction regulations that mainly impose the carbon emission tax and subsidize the technology R＆D for carbon emission reduction can accelerate its technological improvement and diffusion. This paper adopts the GMM system to estimate the influences of the vertical and hori- zontal technological differences on the technological improvement and diffusion of the carbon emission reduction and the carbon emission efficiency with a sample of the panel data of 30 provinces in China from the year 1999 to 2014. Three conclusions can be drawn from this empirical study. Firstly, there is some difference between the influences of the vertical and horizontal technological differences of the two types of carbon emission reduction technologies on the carbon emission reduction technology. The horizontal differences＇ elasticity of carbon emission reduction by in- creasing the energy efficiency is higher than the horizontal differences＇ elasticity of carbon emission reduction by merely controlling carbon emission. On the other hand, the vertical differences＇ elasticity is just the opposite. The vertical differences＇ elasticity of carbon emission reduction by increasing the energy efficiency is much smaller than the vertical differences＇ elasticity of carbon emission reduction by merely controlling carbon emission. So, the con- clusion can be drawn that the difficulty of carbon-emission-reducing technology R＆D by merely controlling the car- bon emission is bigger than the technology R＆D difficulty by increasing the energy efficiency. The former can only increase its cost but not its direct economic benefits and the latter can bring in the direct economic benefits. Sec- ondly, the influences of decreasing the horizontal technological differences on decreasing the rates of technological improvement respectively in the east, in the middle and in the west are different. The technological improvement rates created by decreasing the horizontal technological differences in the middle and the west areas are smaller than the one in the east. Therefore, when the middle and west areas develop the carbon-emission-reducing technologies, they should pay more attention to introducing the proven technologies from the east areas. It will benefit the im- provement of the overall environmental quality. Thirdly, the technological improvement rate created by increasing the two types of carbon-emission-reducing technologies in the east areas is much higher than the technological im- provement rates created by increasing the two types of carbon-emission-reducing technologies in the middle and the west areas. Therefore, the east areas should tion with the developed countries in the field technologies. strengthen the independent research and development and the coopera- of carbon emission reduction to improve the carbon-emission-reducing Based on the theoretical research and empirical analysis, some suggestions come up as follows. First, we should increase the carbon emission technology stocks and strengthen the enterprises＇ technology absorptive capaci- ty. On one hand, we should encourage some qualified enterprises to achieve the independent research and develop- ment of the carbon-emission-reducing technologies. On the other hand, we should encourage the enterprises to in- troduce and absorb the advanced carbon-emission-reducing technologies from abroad. Secondly, we should create an institutional environment that benefits the technological improvement and diffusion of the carbon emission reduc- tion. On one hand, we should improve the relating supporting facilities for the diffusion of the carbon emission re- duction, increase the quantity of the enterprises that adopt the carbon-emission-reducing technologies and give full play to the scale economies effect of the technological application of the carbon-emission-reducing technologies. On the other hand, we should establish a sound marketing system for the trade in the field of carbon emission reduc- tion, carry out the tradable permits in this field and encourage the enterprises to adopt the new carbon-emission-re- ducing technologies. Thirdly, with a consideration of the differences in the economic foundation, technological level and institutional environment of different areas, we should implement different policies to improve and diffuse the carbon-emission-reducing technologies according to the local conditions. Fourthly, when we pay great efforts to develop the carbon-emission-reducing technologies, it＇ s more important for us to increase the rate of energy utilization and the diffusion of relative technologies.