房价波动、住房自有率和房地产挤出效应

Housing Price Fluctuation,Homeownership Rate,and Crowding Effect

本文试图回答三个问题:(1)驱动房价波动的主要因素是什么?(2)房地产行业对于其他行业的影响是怎样的?(3)住房自有率怎样影响房地产行业?文章首先构建了一个包含代表性家户、房地产企业、资本品生产者和代表性企业主的多部门模型,基于贝叶斯估计的分析发现,驱动中国房价波动的因素短期来自于住房偏好冲击,中长期则取决于房地产投资、全要素生产率和需求冲击。房价、房地产投资对于非房地产投资和居民消费有微弱的挤出效应,理论和实证显示了一致性。接着文章扩展出一个包含无房家户的异质性主体模型,发现过高的住房自有率会强化这种挤出效应。本文认为房地产市场的回落以及住房自有率的下降有助于宏观经济的平衡发展。

This Paper tries to answer three questions. Firstly, what are the main driving factors of housing price fluctuations？ Secondly, how does real estate industry influence the non-real estate industries？ Thirdly, how does the housing owned rate affect the real estate industry？ The Paper firstly constructs a multi- sector model including the representative households, real estate enterprises,capital goods producers and representative entrepreneurs.With the Bayesian estimation analysis, the housing price volatility mainly depends on the housing demand shock in the short term, and in the long run housing demand shock, housing investment shock and TFP shock together play important roles.Both housing price and real estate investment have weak crowding effect over non-real estate investment as well as consumption.Thus the empirical evidence and theory show some consistency. Afterwards, the paper extends a heterogeneous model including the households without owning the housing and finds higher housing owned rate would strengthen the crowding out effect.The paper supposes the deceleration of the real estate market as well as the housing owned rate would benefit the macro economy in a more balance way.