中韩自贸区的经济效应研究与对策分析--基于GTAP模型的模拟

Study on the Economic Effects and Countermeasure Analysis of the Sino-South Korea Free Trade Agreement: Based on the Simulation of GTAP

中韩自贸区是截至目前我国对外商谈的涉及国别贸易额最大的自贸区。中韩两国之间的关税减让幅度较大,但仍存在许多敏感性产品,未来依然有很大的关税减让空间。本文基于最新的GTAP 9数据库进行情景模拟,研究发现中韩关税减让有利于中韩两国双边贸易增长、经济发展和福利提高。在考虑到TPP协定的情形下,我们发现TPP协定将削弱中韩自贸协定对两国经济的正向效应。如果韩国先于中国加入TPP,我国各项经济发展指标将受到冲击。鉴于此,我国应进一步扩大对外开放,积极主动参与TPP谈判。

The Sino-South Korea FTA is the largest free trade agreement for China, which leads to a substantial tariff reduction between both two countries. A portion of sensitive products still exist, and there will be a large space for further tariff reduction. This paper makes numerical simulations study of the economic effects of Sino- South Korea FTA based on the GTAP 9 database, and we find that tariff reduction is in favor of the boom of bilateral trade, economic development and the improvement of the social welfare. Implementation of TPP will weaken the positive economic effects of Sino- South Korea FFA on the economy of both South Korea and China. If South Korea joins the TPP earlier than China, Chinese economy will suffer a significant shock. Therefore, China should further expand the opening-up, actively participate in the TPP negotiations.