人民币双边事实汇率制度与中国出口增长

Bilateral RMB De Facto Exchange Rate Regime and China's Export Growth

与汇率水平、汇率波动不同，本文研究汇率制度对国际贸易的影响。结论发现：中国同34％的贸易伙伴是事实上的固定汇率制度；对固定汇率制度贸易对象的出口规模是浮动汇率制度贸易对象的1．30～1．92倍；如果中国同所有贸易伙伴均实行浮动汇率制度，中国出口将减少6．42～13．29％；固定汇率制度对外部融资依赖度高的产品的作用更明显。这意味着固定汇率制度不仅增加了出口规模，也优化了出口结构。寻求固定汇率制度的替代性金融工具是未来中国对外贸易发展的重要课题。

Contrasting to exchange rate level or volatility, this paper focus on the effect of exchange rate regime on China＇s export growth. We found that China and 34% trade partners are in fact in fixed exchange rate regime; the trade volume under fixed exchange rate regime is about 1.30- 1.92 times of that under floating exchange rate regime; if China and all its trade partners were in floating exchange rate regime, China＇s export volume would decrease 6.42 - 13.29% ; furthermore, the promoting effect is larger for the product with higher dependence on external financing. Therefore, fixed exchange rate regime not only increases export volume but also upgrades export structure.