节能目标的实现提高了中国工业全要素能源生产率吗?

Does the Achievement of Energy Saving Target Improve the Total Factor Energy Efficiency of Different Industries in China?

本文以"十一五"节能目标为研究对象,研究了节能目标的实现与工业部门各行业的全要素能源生产率之间的关系。本文首先运用DEA-Malmquist方法估计了全国38个工业行业的全要素能源生产率,我国不同行业的全要素能源生产率有着显著的差异,在"十一五"期间,我国大多数行业的全要素能源生产率都实现了提高。随后本文按照中央政府实行节能考核将"十一五"规划划分为2008年前后两个时期并分别对于两个时期我国工业行业的单位能耗进行了考察,2008年后各行业的单位能耗相较于2008年前显著下降了44.8%;而且2008年后各行业的单位能耗越高的行业能耗下降就越快,具体而言:一个行业头一年的单位能耗每高1%,该年的单位能耗就显著下降0.567%,而这一结果在2008年前并没有体现。然后本文考察了节能目标的实现与各行业能源生产率之间的关系,"十一五"期间各行业的能耗变化值与全要素能源生产率的变化之间的关系在2008年前后有着显著不同,2008年后一个行业当年的单位能耗的变化值如果下降1%,那么它的全要素能源生产率就会显著上升0.433%,而2008年前则没有显著的统计学相关关系。最后本文在此基础之上提出了相关的政策建议,包括(1)继续推行"节能减排"政策,促进我国各行业全要素能源生产率的提高;(2)发挥市场作用,规范政府行为,运用市场手段来推进"节能减排"政策;(3)积极采用其它措施共同配合"节能减排"政策。

The paper takesenergy saving target of 11th five-year plan as the research object and the relationship between en- ergy saving target and the total factor energy efficiency. At first, the method of DEA-Malmquist is used to estimate the total factor energy efficiency of 38 industries, there exist significant difference among these industries and most of them were im- proved during 11th five-year plan. Then the paper divides the 11th five-year plan into before 2008 and after according to the implement of assessment policy of central government, the paper studies the energy consumption of per output of different industries in these two periods. The energy consumption of per output decreases 44.8% significantly after 2008. The higher energy consumption of per output, the faster of decrease of energy consumption of per output, specifically, the energy con- sumption of per output of an industry increase 1% , and the velocity of decrease of energy consumption of per output will in- crease 0. 567% significantly, while this result didn＇ t be observed before 2008. And then the paper studies the relationship between the achievement of energy saving target and total factor energy efficiency, the relationship of change of energy con- sumption of per output and change of total factor energy efficiency is different in two periods, if the change of energy con- sumption of per output of an industry increase 1%, and the change of energy consumption of per output will increase 0. 433% significantly after 2008 while there exist no statistical evidence to support the same result before 2008. Based on these results, some policy are suggested, including （ 1 ） the policy of＂ Conserve energy, reduce emissions＂ should be continued, it can improve total factor energy efficiency in China; （2） Exertive market function, standardizing the government action, the market need to play an important role to carry out the policy of＂ Conserve energy, reduce emissions＂ ; （3） the other policies should be carried out for cooperated with the policy of＂ Conserve energy, reduce emissions＂.