环境规制能实现“降污”和“增效”的双赢吗——来自环保重点城市“达标”与“非达标”准实验的证据

Can Environmental Regulation Achieve Win-Win of“Reducing Pollution”and“Increasing Performance”?——Evidence from Key Environmental Protection Cities with“Compliance”and“Non-Compliance”Quasi-experimental

在面临稳增长和治污染双重压力的背景下,环境规制实现"降污"和"增效"的双赢至关重要。本文首次利用2003年国务院实施的空气质量"限期达标"制度这样一个自然实验,采用基于趋势评分匹配的双重差分方法,评估了环境规制的"双赢"效应及其制度异质性,稳健性检验证实了结论的可靠性。研究发现,环境规制会在短期降低污染和改善环境质量,却会降低技术进步和全要素生产率;伴随着环境规制的其他经济社会效应凸显,对经济增长的不利效应将逐步被抵消,并由负转正,实现环境保护与经济发展的"双赢";环境规制的双赢效应既受制于其内生的制度结构安排,又受到所处制度环境的影响,尤其是市场化因素和政府质量因素。研究结果揭示,环境规制的"减排降污"效应影响有利于"经济增长"效应实现,良好的制度环境可以放大环境规制的正向效应和减弱扭曲效应。

In the background of dual pressures of steady growth and controlling pollution, environmental regulation of achieving “win-win” on “Reducing pollution” and “Increasing performance” seems extremely important. This paper employs this natural experiment of Key Environmental Protection Cities with “ Compliance” and “Non-compliance” in 2003, using the method of difference in difference based on propensity score matching to assess the “win-win” effect and its institutional heterogeneity, and robustness tests confirms the reliability of conclusions. This study finds： environmental regulation will reduce pollution and improve environmental quality, but reduce the technical progress and total factor productivity. Along with highlight of other economic and social effects of environmental regulation, negative effects on economic growth will gradually offset, achieving the “win-win” of environmental protection and economic growth. The “win-win” of environmental regulation is not only subject to its endogenous institutional structure, but also the system, marketization and government quality especially. This paper suggests that the “reducing emission and pollution” effect of environmental regulation is conductive to the achievement of “economic growth”, good institution can amplify the positive effect and weaken the distortion effect of environmental regulation.