养老保险制度的储蓄效应:基于中国的经验研究

Empirical Analysis on Saving Effect of Social Security System in China

居民储蓄除了个人生命周期储蓄,还可能存在预防性储蓄和遗产动机储蓄,养老保险制度的储蓄效应与一国居民的储蓄动机密切相关。通过对中国养老保险制度储蓄效应的实证分析可以发现:中国城镇社会养老保险覆盖率对城镇居民个人储蓄率的影响显著为负,但养老保障水平对个人储蓄率的影响则十分微弱并不显著,同时,少儿抚养比、医疗住房支出占比、失业率对城镇居民个人储蓄的影响则十分显著。这一方面反映了养老保险制度覆盖率的扩大已逐渐显现成效,但另一方面也表明中国居民仍有强烈的预防性储蓄动机,其深层原因正在于中国养老保险制度及医疗保险制度、失业保险制度都供给不足,制度的缺失和不完善使中国城镇居民要依赖个人储蓄进行自我保障。因此,要逐步完善中国养老保险制度及其他社会保障制度。

The motivation for household savings may include precautionary savings and heritage savings in addition to individual life - cycle savings. Saving effect of social security system in China is closely related to motivation for household savings. An empirical analysis on saving effect of social security system in China shows that the impact of China＇s urban social insurance coverage on personal savings rate of urban residents is significantly negative,while the impact of China ＂s urban social insurance level on personal savings rate is not significant. Meanwhile,the impact of other variables on personal savings rate is very significant, such as ehildren~ dependency ratio, the proportion of health care and housing expenditures on disposable income and unemployment rate. On one hand, the results reflect that the expansion of China~ urban social insurance coverage has been gradually emerging effectiveness. On the other hand, the results show that people have a strong precautionary savings motive in China because social security system, medical insurance system and unemployment insurance system in China are all in short supply. Then, people have to rely on personal savings for self - protection since social security system is imperfect. So,we should take measures to improve social security system.