长期护理保险的参与意愿及其影响因素研究——基于陕西省榆林市的微观样本

Empirical Analysis of Willingness to Participate in Long-term Care Insurance and its Influencing Factors——Based on the Survey in Yulin City of Shanxi Province

本文基于对陕西省榆林市市民随机发放的问卷调查结果,综合各方面因素合理选取相关变量,运用二元Probit离散选择模型和Heckman两步估计研究长期护理保险参与意愿以及愿意支付价格的影响因素。结果表明:政府参与补贴会增加长期护理保险的参与意愿;工作和收入越稳定、收入越多、患有慢性病种类越多、风险厌恶程度越高、对长期护理保险更了解、更期望正式养老机构照料老年生活的人群更愿意参与长期护理保险;但由于经济条件限制,慢性病患者愿意支付的价格并不高。另外,参与社会及商业医疗保险状况对长期护理保险发展具有正向作用。本文在此研究基础上提出一些政策建议,对长期护理保险的发展具有一定启示意义。

Based on the questionnaire issued in Yulin city of Shanxi Province and considered all factors, the paper chooses some reasonable variables to study the factors which affect the willingness to participate in long - term care insurance and the price they would pay for it, by using binary Probit discrete choice model and Heckman two - step estimation. And the result shows that： the government participation in the subsidy will increase the participation willingness of long - term care insurance; the people with more stable job and income, more income, suffering from chronic diseases and with a high degree of risk aversion, know more about the long - term care insurance, expecting for formal pension institutions to care for the old age are more willing to join in long - term care insurance; but because of economic limits, the price that chronic disease patients would pay is not high. In addition, the participation in social and commercial health insurance has a positive effect on the development of long -term care insurance. On the basis of this study, some policy recommendations are put forward, which is of certain significance to the development of long- term care insurance.