青藏高原东南缘气象要素Anusplin和Cokriging空间插值对比分析

Contrast on Anusplin and Cokriging Meteorological Spatial Interpolation in Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

选取地形起伏度巨大的青藏高原东南缘为研究区,利用该研究区96个气象站点,结合高程数据,分别采用Cokriging和Anusplin空间插值方法,获取2010年250 m分辨率的年均温度和年累计降水插值曲面。并采用交叉验证方法对比Anusplin与Cokriging插值精度,分析了误差的空间分布特征,重点对比两种插值曲面差异较大的区域精度优劣,评价两种方法在复杂地区的适用性。结果表明,Anusplin在复杂地表的插值表现优于Cokriging,其中Anusplin气温插值的均方差仅为0.82℃,而Cokriging的均方差为1.45℃;两者的降水插值精度基本一致,但Anusplin在气象要素空间异质性大的区域优于Cokriging。因此,与Cokriging相比,Anusplin更适合青藏高原东南缘复杂地表气象要素空间插值。

Meteorological data is the essential data of ecological,resources,environment,global change and other research areas.However,the meteorological in Mountain are rare and complex than in plain.And acquiring precise spatial grid meteorological data has been a difficult task in this area.Anusplin and Cokriging interpolation method are one of the most common method that considering terrain＇impacts during the Meteorological Spatial Interpolation.To ensure which one is more suit for complex area,we take the most complex mountain area（the Southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau）as study area to compare the two methods.Based on Anusplin and Cokriging meteorological spatial interpolation method separately,combined with the terrain data and 96 meteorological stations in the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau region,250 m resolution average temperature and total precipitation interpolated surfaces in 2010 was obtained.With the cross-validation method comparison method,the interpolation accuracy of Anusplin and Cokriging was compared,and the spatial distribution of errors was analyzed.Applying relevant information,accurate of the two methods in local area where the result of interpolation are quite different was qualitatively analyzed.Through this,the method which is more suit for this area is sought out and the applicability of Anusplin in this area was assessed.The results showed that,Anusplin interpolation outperformed Cokriging.In the comparing of mean square error（RMSE）of the interpolation of temperature and precipitation,Anusplin temperature is only 0.82 ℃ and Cokriging is 1.45 ℃,the RMSE of precipitation of the two methodes are consistent,but Anusplin are superior to Cokriging in the highly heterogeneous area.Therefore Anusplin can achieve better results than Cokriging,indicating that Anusplin is suit for the interpolation in Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.