人口老龄化进程中养老保障的消费增进效应——基于CHARLS数据的研究

The Effect on Consumption Enhancement of Pension Security in the Process of Population Aging: A Study Based on the CHARLS Data

利用2013年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据中的8355个家庭数据,在控制家庭人口特征和家庭经济能力的情况下,分别从家庭消费水平和家庭消费结构两方面考察人口老龄化进程中养老保障对家庭消费的影响。结果显示:养老负担会使家庭人均消费支出明显下降,但是医疗保健方面的消费支出占比会显著提高;参加养老保障会显著提高家庭的人均消费支出,尤其是无养老负担家庭会减少对未来养老的预防性储蓄而增加当期消费,养老保障的消费增进效应明显,但是有养老保障家庭的各项消费支出占比则没有显著的提高或下降。这充分说明养老负担是家庭消费水平难以提高的重要因素,而养老保障是刺激人口老龄化进程中消费增长的有力手段。

Using 8355 families＇ data of the 2013 CHARLS data,the paper firstly controls the population characteristics of family and family economic situation,and then respectively from the level of household consumption and household consumption structure examines the impact of ageing population and pension security on household consumption. The results show that the old- age burden can make family per consumer spending declined obviously,and can significantly increase the proportion of health care expenditure,decrease the proportion of other consumer spending. And to participate in pension security can significantly increase family per consumer spending,especially families of no burden will reduce precautionary saving for the future pension and increase current consumption. So,pension security can promote consumption significantly. But the proportion of consumer spending accounted for of families with pension protection is no significant increase or decline. This fully shows that the burden to raise the old is one of the important factors that family consumption level is difficult to improve,the pension security is the powerful means to stimulate consumption growth in the process of population aging.