气候变化与中国连片特困地区资产贫困陷阱

Climate Change and Asset-Based Poverty Trap in China Contiguous Destitute Areas

文章基于农村固定观察点的样本数据,实证分析了1986年至2009年气候变化对中国农户资产动态的影响,研究结果表明:(1)连片特困区不存在多均衡状态贫困陷阱;(2)就连片特困区农户而言,极端天气(或降雨)增加导致其减少各类资产投资,而气温上升则促使其增加生产及固定型资产投资,但对消费型资产投资不产生影响;(3)与"片区外"农户相比,连片特困区农户应对风险能力较弱,资产动态敏感性更高,且"片区内"农户村与村之间的贫困差异程度较大。研究认为,在精准扶贫背景下,政府应加大对连片特困区保险、信贷支持力度,且需在其教育、培训方面加大投入,提高连片特困区农户风险应对能力。

Based on the survey data of 23000 rural households,this paper empirically analyzed the impact of climate change on China rural households' assets dynamic from 1986 to 2009. The following conclusions were drawn: firstly,there is not a poverty trap based on multiple point equilibrium in China Contiguous Destitute Areas. Secondly,as extreme weather or rainfall increases,China Contiguous Destitute Areas households tend to sell assets. In addition to that,China Contiguous Destitute Areas households tend to increase investments only on fixed assets and production- based assets when the temperature rises.Thirdly,compared to their control groups,Contiguous Destitute Areas households have scarcer capacities to cope with shocks,and their assets are more sensitive. What's more,the differences in poverty degrees between different villages in China Contiguous Destitute Areas are greater. The authors of this paper suggested that government should increase support to insurance and credit in China Contiguous Destitute Areas,and the investment in education should also be increased.