北京市2010-2015年慢性非传染性疾病早死概率研究

Probability of premature mortality caused by non-communicable diseases in Beijing, 2010-2015

目的探索性分析2010-2015年北京市四类慢性非传染性疾病（慢性病）早死概率等相关指标的趋势变化。方法利用来源于北京市户籍居民死因监测系统中2010-2015年北京市户籍居民死亡登记资料，应用WHO推荐计算方法，分析慢性病年龄标化死亡率、慢性病70岁之前的死亡比例和四类慢性病早死概率。结果2010-2015年，北京市户籍人口慢性病约占总死亡的90％，慢性病年龄标化死亡率从332．43／10万下降到280．02／10万。四类慢性病早死概率从12．81％下降到11．11％。以2015年为基准计算，男性四类慢性病早死概率为14．63％，距离2025年控制目标（12．23％）尚有16．4％的下降空间；女性四类慢性病早死概率为7．54％，距离2025年控制目标（7．03％）有6．8％的下降空间。2015年北京市城区四类慢性病早死概率为9．72％，郊区为13．67％，郊区高于城区。结论北京市慢性病死亡率相关指标已达到世界高收入国家水平。四类慢性病早死概率男性远高于女性，建议进一步加强慢性病的预防和控制，关注重点人群，最终实现25×25的目标。

Objective To understand the probability of premature mortality caused by non-communicable diseases （NCD） in Beijing from 2010 to 2015. Methods The data of deaths from Beijing vital registration system were used to analyze age-standardized NCD mortality rates, proportion of NCD deaths in age group 〈70 years and premature NCD mortality. Results NCD deaths accounted for 90% of the total deaths in Beijing. Age-standardized NCD death rate decreased from 332.43/100 000 in 2010 to 280.02/100 000 in 2015. Meanwhile, the probability of deaths from four NCDs between in age group 30-70 years （premature NCD mortality） decreased from 12.81% to 11.11% in Beijing. The premature mortality of four NCDs in men was 14.63%, and compared with 2015 baseline, it would decrease by 16.4% to reach 2025 goal （12.23%）, and the probability of premature mortality four NCDs in women was 7.54%, and compared with 2015 baseline, it would decrease by 6.8% to reach the 2025 goal （7.03%）. People living in suburb areas had a higher probability of premature NCD mortality （13.67%） than those living in urban areas （9.72%） in Beijing in 2015. Conclusions The premature NCD mortality was much higher in men than in women in Beijing. More attention should be paid to the control of risk factors for NCD premature deaths, especially in men and in suburb residents, to reach the 25×25 goal.