自然灾害链情景态势组合推演方法

Scenarios Combination Deduction Method of Natural Disaster

鉴于传统"预测-应对"的不足,采用"情景-应对"模式,借助情景的灵活性,从演化趋势途径提升对自然灾害的认知-行为能力。首先,归纳总结自然灾害的特征,构建自然灾害链情景态势组合推演框架,根据框架提取出组合推演的3个主要内容;其次,对本体论中的<I-N-C-A>赋予相应的语义,用以自然灾害链情景表达;最后,设计自然灾害链情景态势组合推演流程,解释流程中的关键步骤,运用信息扩散理论获得前因情景要素发生概率,借助频率思想获得前因情景要素下后序情景要素组合发生的条件概率,从而获得前因情景要素向后序情景要素的转化概率评估值,挖掘组合推演规则,进行用例分析。

To overcome the shortcoming typical of traditional ＂Predict-Response＂ method, this paper combines the ＂Scenario-Response＂ mode into the scenario flexibility to strengthen the cognition of natural disasters from the microscopic view. First of all, we summarize the characteristics of natural disasters, give a framework of natural disaster chain scenarios combination deduction, and based on this frame- work, extract three main contents of combination deduction. Secondly, we give a corresponding semantics to ontology 〈I-N-C-A〉 to ex- press natural disaster chain scenarios. Finally, we design a scenario combination deduction process of natural disaster chain, explain key steps in the process, use information diffusion theory to evaluate the probability of cause scenarios, with the help of frequency ideas, get the probability of result scenarios on the condition of cause scenarios to mine combination deductive rules, and analyze a case as exam- pie.