分形视角下的非常规突发事件应急组织动态重构——以8.12天津港爆炸事件为例

Unconventional Emergency Organizational Dynamic Reconstruction Based on Fractal——8.12 Tianjin Explosions Case Study

在现代应急管理领域,针对非常规突发事件的不确定性和动态性的增强,构建具有快速反应机制的动态应急组织系统成为了关键问题。在此背景下,要求我们的应急决策者能够把握环境动态变化下不变的组织机制规律性本质,探索出一种适应不同情境的非常规突发事件应急组织动态模式。本文从系统的角度,借鉴分形的思想,将分形方法引入非常规突发事件的组织系统理论研究中,以应急单元间的供需关系(DS)和委托-执行(DT)关系为主线,生成了应急组织分形元,构建了分形应急组织系统框架,并在此基础上提出了不同情境下的应急组织动态重构机制。最后以天津港爆炸事件为例,分析了情景突变下的分形应急组织的重构过程,验证了分形应急组织应对环境变化的高效性。

In the field of modern emergency management, it is of important significance to establish the dynamic emergency organization system and rapid response mechanism based on the uncertainty of unconventional emergencies. Under this background, the emergency decision-makers should analyze the characteristic of organizational mechanism and the nature of invariable regularity of organization which has flexible structure under the dynamic change, explore an unconventional emergency organization dynamic model to adapt different sce- narios. In this paper, from the perspective of system and drawing lessons from the thought of fractal, we introduce the fractal method in the theoretical study of the unconventional emergency organization system, and generate the emergency organizational fractal unit, which has the relationship of Demand-Supply （DS） and Delegation-to-do （DT） between emergency units as the main line. Then, we build the fractal emergency organization frame, and give the dynamic reconstruction mechanism of emergency organization in the different scenari- os. As a case study of 8.12 Tianjin explosions, we analyze the reconstruction process of fractal emergency organization under the muta- tional scenarios, and verify the fractal emergency organization efficiency to respond to environmental change.