新能源汽车发展影响因素分析及保有量预测

Analysis of Factors Affecting the New Energy Vehicle Development and Ownership Forecast

新能源汽车保有量预测能够反映未来汽车能源多元化发展的趋势,这对政府调控、车企发展方向和能源部门决策都具有重要意义。分析包括经济、政策的宏观因素和汽车价格等微观因素对新能源汽车保有量的影响,建立多种因素控制结果的新能源汽车保有量的数学预测模型,并给定一种因素自变量的输入矩阵,得到预测结果。在特定因素变量的输入下,对CNG汽车、LNG汽车、纯电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车在中期以及中长期的保有量进行预测。

The forecast of new energy vehicle population could reflect the trend of automotive energy diversification in the future, which is of great significance to the government regulation, the direction of car companies and energy sector decision -making. This study has analyzed the micro factors including economy, policy and macro factors such as car prices and other factors impacting new energy car ownership. Given a matrix of factors, the mathematical model with a variety of fac- tors controlling result could lead to predictions. Having considered some important factors, the ownership of CNG vehicles, LNG vehicles, pure electric vehicles and plug - in hybrid vehicles in the medium term as well as long - term were predic- ted.