土地利用变化情景下浑河-太子河流域的非点源污染模拟

Non-point source pollution simulation under land use change scenarios in Hun-Taizi River watershed

近年来非点源污染已经成为水污染的主要来源,对非点源污染发生机理和控制方法的研究有着重要的科学和现实意义.为了研究不同土地利用方式对非点源污染的影响,本文基于土地利用变化模型CLUE-S模拟了城市规划、历史趋势和生态保护3个预案下浑河-太子河流域土地利用未来变化.应用SWAT模型对非点源污染进行了模拟研究,并结合实测数据对模拟结果进行了评价.结合两个模型研究了3个土地利用预案下非点源污染对土地利用和景观格局变化的响应.结果表明:SWAT模型在浑河-太子河流域模拟精度较高,该模型在研究区具有适用性.城市规划和历史趋势预案下非点源污染负荷不断增加,城市规划方案下最高,生态保护预案下非点源污染负荷呈不断下降趋势.不同土地利用和景观格局对非点源污染有一定的影响,科学合理的生态建设能够有效减少非点源污染负荷.研究结果可以为流域的非点源污染研究提供案例,为非点源污染防治和最佳管理措施的制定提供科学依据,为相关政策制定提供参考.

Non-point source （NPS） pollution has become a major source of water pollution in re- cent years. The research of NPS pollution mechanism and control has an important scientific and practical meaning. To study the effect of land use change on NPS pollution load, near future land use of Hun-Taizi River watershed was simulated under three scenarios based on CLUE-S model, in- cluding urban planning, historical trend and ecological protection scenarios. NPS pollution was sim- ulated based on SWAT model. The simulated results of SWAT were compared with measured data. The response of NPS pollution to land use change and landscape pattern was studied with the combi- nation of the two models in three land use scenarios. The results showed that the NPS pollution simu- lation with SWAT had high accuracy, which showed the suitability of SWAT model in the study area. The NPS pollution load increased under urban planning and historical trend scenarios but de- creased under ecological protection scenario. The difference in three scenarios indicated that land use and landscape pattern impacted NPS to a certain extent, which showed that scientific ecological construction could effectively reduce NPS pollution load. This study provided a new study case for NPS pollution research at watershed scale, a scientific basis for implementation of non-point source pollution control and best management practices, and a reference for related policy making.