人民币实际汇率调整对中国制造业就业影响--来自1998-2007年细分行业数据的证据

How the Adjustment of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate Affects Chinese Cities' Industrial Employment?

本文首次利用498个4位代码的细分行业数据研究汇率调整对中国制造业就业的影响。在扩展汇率调整对就业市场影响理论分析框架的基础上，本文探讨了人民币实际汇率调整从要素密集度对中国城市制造业就业市场的传导渠道及其影响因素；并通过1998-2007年工业企业数据以及海关贸易数据构建人民币在行业层面的实际有效汇率指数，发现人民币实际汇率调整会对中国城市行业就业市场产生显著且重要的影响。研究表明：初级产品和劳动资本密集型行业的实际汇率调整对就业影响估计的显著性明显高于技术密集型行业，3类行业的就业弹性分别为0．423、0．327、0．309；相对私营行业而言，外商投资行业的净就业水平对于实际汇率调整更为敏感。

This is the first paper which takes advantage of the 498 four-digit industrial data to make a research on the impact of exchange rate adjustment on Chinese manufacturing employment. On the basis of the extension of the theoretical analysis framework concerning the impact of the exchange rate adjustment on employment market, we make a research on the influence channels of RMB real exchange rate adjustment on Chinese manufacturing employment market from the perspective of factor intensity. We construct the RMB industrial-level real exchange rate index by merging the industrial enterprise data from 1998 to 2007 and custom trade data and then find that the adjustment of RMB real exchange rate will make an obvious and significant impact on Chinese urban employment market. Also, we reach a conclusion that the estimation of the influence of the real exchange rate adjustment for primary products and labor-intensive industry is more obvious than the technology-intensive industry and the employment elasticity of primary industry, labor-intensive industry and technology-intensive is 0.423, 0.327 and 0.309 respectively. The net employment level of foreign investment industry is more sensitive than private industry when facing the real exchange rate adjustment.