基于模糊双曲正切模型的短期光伏发电量预测

The short-term photovoltaic power generation forecasting based on the fuzzy hyperbolic model

通过对影响光伏发电量产生的因素进行分析比较,在模糊双曲正切模型的基础上,建立一种光伏发电量的短期预测模型。该模型既属于模糊模型,也属于神经网络模型的范畴。可以利用其强大的学习能力,以光伏发电系统的历史数据作为训练样本,对模型进行学习,并利用得到的稳定模型对光伏发电量进行短期预测。仿真结果表明,该预测模型与其他预测方法相比有更高的预测精度。

Through the analysis and comparison of the factors that affect the generation of photovoltaic power generation, the short-term prediction model of photovoltaic power generation is established based on fuzzy hyperbolic model. This model is not only a kind of fuzzy model, but also a neural network model. Using its powerful learning ability, the historical data is used as the training sample. And get the stability of the model is used for short-term forecasting of photovoltaic power generation.Simulation results show that the prediction model has higher prediction accuracy compared with other prediction methods.