多边汇率风险下各国通货膨胀复杂性变化研究

Research on Dynamic Complexity of Inflation in Various Countries under Multilateral Exchange Rate Risk

国际汇率风险是一国经济市场稳定的重要决定因素,为此文章采用数值方法,对各种多边汇率情景下各国通货膨胀水平的变化情况进行模拟仿真。研究发现,汇率变化对各国通货膨胀的影响,受到各国间制造业产品替代弹性的干扰,存在复杂性特征:在各国制造业产品替代弹性处于低水平时,有金融国参与的贬值情景,有利于压低各国的通胀水平;当各国制造业产品替代弹性达到一定程度时,制造国(或资源国)的单独贬值,有利于压低本国的通胀水平,但却会拉高其他国家的通胀水平。因此,在国际汇率政策决策中,为控制国内通胀水平,一国应充分考虑多边汇率决策的综合博弈结果,而不是简单的一对一关系。

Exchange rate risk is an important decisive factor for the market stability in a country. Accordingly,this paper adopts the numerical simulation method and simulates the change of inflation in various countries under multilateral exchange rate.The study finds the complexity in the impact of exchange rate change upon inflation,which is affected by the elasticity of substitute goods in manufacturing industry among different countries. When the substitute elasticity is at a low level,the currency depreciation involving Financial-Country is likely to lead to lower inflation in all countries. When the substitute elasticity reaches a certain scale,the unilateral currency depreciation of Manufacturing-Country or Resource-Country will lead to lower inflation domestically but higher inflation in other countries. Therefore,in making the decision of exchange rate policy,to keep the domestic inflation under control,a country should consider fully the comprehensive game result in the decision making of multilateral exchange rate,which is not a simple one-to-one relationship.