中亚地区气温变化的时空特征分析

Spatial and temporal variation of temperature in Central Asia

基于中亚地区63个气象站点1960-2012年月平均气温时间序列,利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、R/S分析法和Kriging空间插值,对中亚地区近50多年来气温变化的时空特征进行了分析。结果表明：1）1960-2012年,中亚地区年平均气温变化速率为0.273℃/10a,四季中尤以秋季增温最快,速率高达0.39℃/10a,且R/S指数表明该区气温变暖趋势在未来一段时间内仍会持续;2）中亚地区年平均气温在1989年发生由低温到高温的跃变,跃变前后均值相差0.84℃,其中夏季和冬季跃变时间为1980年左右,而春季则在1999年;3）中亚地区增暖趋势具有明显的时空差异性,年均增幅大体上由东北至西南趋小,各地区在不同季节的气温增幅也不尽相同。

Based on the average monthly temperature time series from 63 meteorological stations in Central Asia during 1960 -2012a, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the mean temperature in annual and seasonal were analyzed by using nonparametric Mann - Kendall test, R/S analysis and Kriging interpolation. The results showed that： （1） In 1960-2012a, the temperature variation in Central Asia presented a significant increasing trend with a rate of 0.273℃/10a, and the warming in winter was more rapid with a warming rate of about 0.39℃/10a. The R/S analysis indicated that temperature increase in this region would continue a period of time in the future. （2） The climatic jump of annual temperature happened in 1989 from low to high. The earlier abruption occurred around 1980 in summer and winter; however the spring average temperature abrupt change point appeared until 1999. （3） The temperature variability presented obviously the temporal and spatial difference. The increasing trend of annual temperature became smaller from northeast to southwest. The same area represented distinct warming trend in each season.