新疆粮食生产波动:波动特征与影响因素

The food production fluctuation in Xinjiang: Fluctuation characteristics,influence factors and policy recommendations

运用1999年以来新疆粮食生产的相关数据,采用粮食生产波动指数通过测算波动周期和波动幅度对新疆粮食生产的波动特性进行了计量分析,并通过构建理论模型对新疆粮食生产波动的影响因素进行了探讨。结果表明：1）1999~2014年新疆粮食总产波动经历了一个波浪式前进、螺旋式上升的过程,且整个波动过程可划分为5个周期;2）从波谷年总量增长率来看,新疆粮食总产波动属于古典型波动;从波动年距来看,总产波动属于典型的短期波动类型,但却有逐步进入较长周期波动的趋势;从波幅来看,三个完整周期波幅均大于5%的波动水平,但有进一步缩短的趋势,说明在未来一段时间新疆粮食生产的稳定性将提高;3）1999~2014年新疆粮食自然波动对总产的影响要大于经济波动的影响,说明新疆粮食生产波动更易受自然因素（自然灾害）影响;4）影响新疆粮食产量波动的因素主要有农业机械总动力波动、化肥施用量波动、上一年粮食收购价格波动以及成灾面积,其中,成灾面积波动对新疆粮食总产波动的影响最大,其次是农业机械总动力和化肥施用量,上一年的粮食收购价格对总产波动影响最不显著。

As the important province of grain production in our country （area）, food production situation in Xinxiang have always been brought to the attention of the countries. Considering the importance of food safety and agricultural support targeted, in - depth analysis under the new situation of Xinxiang grain output volatility and its influencing factors, the formation of stable growth of grain production of long - term mechanism has important practical significance. In this research, the relevant data of grain production in Xinxiang since 1999 were used to quantitatively analyzed the grain production fluctuation index by measuring the fluctuation cycle and fluctuation amplitude of grain production in Xinxiang; and a theoretical model was built to discuss the factors influencing the grain production fluctuation in Xinxiang. The results show that ： 1 ） grain production fluctuation in Xinxiang from 1999 to 2014 experienced a process of forward wave and spiral, and the whole process could be divided into five fluctuation cycle, including three full cycle and two incomplete cycle. 2） The grain production fluctuation in Xinxiang had a tendency belonged to typical fluctuation ; output volatility belonged to typical short - term fluctuations, but to gradually enter the longer cycle ; three complete cycle amplitude were greater than 5% level of volatility, but had a tendency to further shorten, showed that in the future the stability of Xinxiang food production will increase. 3 ） During 1999 ~ 2014 in Xinxiang the impact of food natural fluctuations to total output was greater than that of the economic fluctuation. （4） The major factors that influenced grain production fluctuation in Xinxiang were agricultural machinery total power, fertilizer use, grain price fluctuations and inundated areas. Among them, the impact of inundated area fluctuations was the biggest, followed by the agricultural machinery total power and fertilizer use; last year＇s grain purchase prices was not significant.