我国城镇化对二氧化碳排放的长期影响和短期波动效应分析

Analysis of the long-term impact of carbon dioxide emissions and short-term fluctuation effect of urbanization in China

过去三十年我国处于工业化和城镇化快速推进阶段,文中分析了城镇化对二氧化碳排放影响的时间效应,用协整的方法检验了我国城镇化和二氧化碳排放之间的长期稳定关系,并采用误差修正模型分析了影响的短期波动效应。研究结果表明,在我国城镇化和工业化快速发展的背景下,城镇化进程和二氧化碳排放之间存在长期稳定的关系,且短期内也存在波动效应。协整分析结果显示,中国城市化率每增加一个百分点,碳排放增加1.44个百分点;工业增加值占GDP的比重每上升一个百分点,碳排放相应增加1.86个百分点;中国的能源效率每提高一个百分点,二氧化碳排放相应减少0.04个百分点。而基于误差修正模型的短期波动效应分析结果表明,城镇化和工业化会向负向调整二氧化碳的排放,使碳排放趋向均衡。

Over the past three decades, China had experienced a rapid development of urbanization and industrialization. In this background, we analyzed the time effect of urbanizatio on CO2 emissions. Then we tested the long- term stability relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions in China by cointegration method, and the short -term fluctuation effect by using the error correction model. The results show that there was a long - term and stable relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions, and there were fluctuations in the short term. Cointegration analysis results show that China＇s urbanization rate increased one percentage point will lead 1.44 percentage points CO2 emissions; industrial increase of 1% would lead to 1.86% of CO2 emissions; and 1% of China＇s energy efficiency increase would reduce 0.04% of CO2 emissions. And based on the error correction model, the urbanization and industrialization will to induce CO2 emissions, and the adjustment of the short - term carbon dioxide emissions will lead to China＇s carbon emissions to a stable level in the future.